Announced capacity and delivered capacity are not the same number — and the gap is widening. Subsidy programs have triggered a wave of advanced-node fab commitments, but a groundbreaking is not a wafer start, and the constraints between the two are physical.
This report takes every announced advanced-node project and rebuilds its timeline from the inputs up: power interconnection, water supply, and skilled labor. The result is a defensible 2027 capacity picture rather than a press-release one.
What’s inside
- A project-by-project tracker of announced advanced-node fabs, with status
- Input-constraint scoring for each: power, water, labor, and permitting
- A reconciliation of announced vs. realistically deliverable capacity by 2027
- Three scenarios spanning subsidy continuation, partial clawback, and delay
- Supply-chain exposure flags for equipment and materials bottlenecks
The core finding
A meaningful share of headline capacity slips past 2027 once interconnection and water permitting are placed on the critical path.
Who it’s for
Investors and policymakers who need the difference between the announcement and the asset, and operators planning around realistic supply.
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